Biden Education Agenda Will Face Strong Headwinds on Capitol Hill
By Jon Bernstein, President, Bernstein Strategy Group
On Saturday, the race for President appeared to largely end as most major news organizations declared Joe Biden the President-Elect. While four states remain uncalled – Alaska, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina – and some may head into recounts – Wisconsin and ultimately Georgia, it appears that the Biden-Harris ticket has secured enough votes in the electoral college to lead the country come January 20th, 2021. With vote counting continuing and President Trump and his allies filing lawsuits challenging the legitimacy of the election in multiple states, it may seem foolhardy to write a column discussing the remainder of this year and what to expect when you’re expecting a Biden Presidency. But, let’s give it a shot.
To talk about the next few months and next year, though, I need to make three assumptions:
- It is highly likely that Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the United States.
- It is highly likely that the Democrats will retain their House majority but will emerge with net losses to their caucus. At this writing, they have sustained a net loss of four seats with more losses probable.
- It is more likely than not that the Republicans will retain their majority in the Senate. Thus far, Democrats have only netted one additional seat, leaving them three seats short of an outright majority and two seats from a tie where they would control the chamber (as Vice President Kamala Harris would break all ties). A tie in the Senate is possible as both Georgia Senate seats head to run-off elections in January.
If we take all of this as a given, here are a few (very guarded) predictions about the next year:
Lame Duck Session
When Congress returns to Washington to finish out its term, there is one issue that it must deal with – FY2021 funding – and another that it might consider – COVID-19 emergency relief. On funding, the current Continuing Resolution (CR), a temporary budget which is preventing the government from shutting down, expires in December. Before the clock runs out on the current CR, Congress must pass and the President must sign either: 1) another CR that kicks a final decision into the next Administration; 2) a CR that covers the remainder of the year and funds most programs at last year’s spending levels; or 3) actual individual appropriations measures (likely bundled together) that make significant funding changes over last year. The last of these three options may be the heaviest lift as the Senate has not produced a single draft FY2021 bill yet and little time is left this year to do so. Still, Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) may prefer the heaviest lift.
On COVID relief, the House passed HEROES Act, which contains billions in emergency funds for education, has not gone anywhere in the Senate to date. McConnell indicated the day after Election Day that the Senate should deal with a COVID-19 relief bill before next year. This change of heart from McConnell may be because, though he likely will continue to helm the Senate next year, he will likely not have an ally in the White House come January. A McConnell COVID relief deal would likely involve less money overall and less money for schools, and possibly include controversial mandates for schools reopening and the provision of money directly to private schools. Whether House Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) attempts to cut a deal with McConnell now and whether a likely lame duck President Trump would sign-off on such a deal remain open questions. If no deal occurs this year, you can expect that a COVID relief bill will be on top of President-Elect Biden’s agenda when he takes office in the new year.
Next Year
With a divided Congress, two things are certain; 1) House Democrats cannot afford to lose many of their members on any given vote; and 2) Senate moderates will hold a great deal of sway regardless of which party is in control. As a result, bold or expensive legislation may face an uphill climb on both sides of Capitol Hill. Here are a few other things to watch for:
- The Cabinet: If Democrats do not control the Senate, Biden will have a difficult time getting his cabinet picks confirmed, including his selection for Secretary of Education. He may have to choose Cabinet nominees that will be acceptable to Senate Republican moderates and may even have to run them past Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell before announcing them. Another option, which President Trump has used freely, is naming Acting Secretaries who do not require Senatorial confirmation.
- Biden Education Agenda: A Republican-led Senate would put a considerable crimp in Biden’s agenda. Yes, he would still be able to issue Executive Orders and his agencies would be able to develop new regulations or reverse regulations from the previous Administration. For instance, a Biden Department of Education could launch new rulemakings aimed at rewriting controversial Trump Administration regulations on for-profit college oversight and Title IX sexual assault cases. And a Democratic-led Federal Communication Commission could take action to help close the Homework Gap. But without a Democratic Senate, Biden may struggle to advance his legislative agenda. For instance, it may not be possible for a Democratic House and a Republican Senate to agree on Higher Education reauthorization or almost any significant education authorization legislation. Further, the Biden pledges to double Title I and IDEA spending and make new investments in higher education might be derailed because Senate Republicans could refuse to countenance more spending, especially after how much was spent on COVID-19 relief. In short, the same gridlock that has held Congress fast over the past four years could continue and even deepen next year with narrow majorities in the House and Senate. On the other hand, Biden’s skills as a negotiator and dealmaker, which he exercised a number of times on President Obama’s behalf, and his long-term relationship with McConnell could yield some unexpected wins.
- Committee Leadership: While House Education & Labor Committee Chair Bobby Scott (D-VA) will likely remain in his current post for the next Congress, who his counterpart will be on the Senate HELP Committee remains unclear. The current HELP Chair, Senator Lamar Alexander (R-TN), is retiring at the end of this year. If Republicans keep the Senate, the gavel could go to Senators Richard Burr (R-NC), Rand Paul (R-KY) or Susan Collins (R-ME). If the Democrats gain control of the Senate, it is anticipated that current Ranking Member Patty Murray (D-WA) would ascend to the chair.
The president and founder of Bernstein Strategy Group, Jon Bernstein has been working on education, education technology and telecommunications issues since 1995. Currently, he serves as the Co-chair of the Education & Libraries Networks Coalition (EdLiNC), Co-chair of the Homework Gap Big Tent Coalition, and Executive Director of the National Coalition for Technology in Education and Training (NCTET). Prior to launching the Bernstein Strategy Group in 2005, Jon was a Vice President at Leslie Harris & Associates, an Attorney Advisor with the Federal Communications Commission and a Lobbyist and Interim Manager of the Federal Relations Division of the National Education Association. He also worked for The Lightspan Partnership and as a Legislative Fellow for U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein. Jon received his B.A. from Colgate University and his J.D. from Northwestern University School of Law.
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